We're Back Baby. Topic 1: Why John Hollinger sucks, not the Raptors
An entire summer free of Ramblings? I don’t even know where to start so how about what I learned this summer. I wrote a fat camp blog on msn.ca and learned 3 things that impact you:
1. Keeping under 500 words is TOUGH (editors note: post one did not achieve this goal)
2. Mainstream sites aren't keen on ‘borrowing’ stuff from the web such as photos. I even needed ‘express consent’ to post a picture of a buddy at a stag doing a keg stand (which I claimed to have received).
3. I’ll never weigh 165 pounds again. In fact if I ever get below 180 again it’ll likely be due to sickness…and I’m getting comfortable with that (this may not impact you).
John Hollinger and his PER – La Grande Blague
Mr. Hollinger Predicts
Tied for 2nd Atlantic
Tied for 9th in Eastern Conference
i.e. he doesn’t think we can even make the playoffs! Feel free to read his ramblings here
John's theory is that everyone just happened to have careers years and they are all doomed to fall back down to earth. It was a blip in the PER radar. This is the kind of crap people used to say to justify why Nash wasn’t the King. People around him were just stepping up.
The PER meets the BOE
I won’t argue that the PER isn't a nice stat to have, hats off for developing one number to compare all players Mr. Holland, although if you could apply this to fantasy predictions I would find it much more useful.
I do believe it’s great in conjunction with the SG’s VP of Common Sense to validate the results which clearly Holland doesn’t always bother himself with. When Hollinger heard that Paramount Pictures landed Tim Burton and a cast of Nicholson, Close, Bening, Brosnan, DeVito, Short, Jessica-Parker, Michael J. Fox, and Natalie Portman he had the Box Office Efficiency (BOE) through the roof. As close to a sure thing as you could get! The problem is BOE + BOE doesn’t = BOE Gold (the other problem is Tim Burton without Johnny Depp or animation is disaster on a Rob Babcock type scale). Result: Mars Attacks.
The Raptors are more like Melrose Place
When Aaron Spelling parlayed the 90210 formula into Melrose Place it wasn’t a BOE studded cast, it was just tweaking the formula and putting together a solid cast of characters that could follow the nucleus (Heather Locklear) to gold. It was the right time for that type of show, the imitators weren’t there yet and the Bev had proved it could work.
The Raptors briefly tried to imitate the Suns last year using the Run and Gun but it turns out you need to have athletic guys to pull that off. Go figure. So what did we do? We looked at our talent and saw something that could work given our cast. It had worked for the past 8 years in International play vs. this EXACT type of competition (i.e. Team USA / NBA players).
Selfless point guards (accurate 3 games out of 4 plus or minus 1 point guard).
Smarts i.e. knowing your role.
This wasn’t rocket science it was genius. And soon lots of people will try to copy it.
We had the Euro players, the ability to play decent defense and ridiculous offensive execution, based on effort, brains and efficiency to help us win games. It’s not like these guys are playing over their head individually. In fact as soon as TJ gets into “I can take these guys 1-4 by driving hard and throwing it over my head" mode you can see the massive breakdown. Luckily so can Sam, sound buzzer, enter Jose.
If you want to trash the Raptors focus on Bosh / Garbajosa’s injury potential as hurdles and the 'emergence' of the East (I have my doubts). And of course ignore BargNANI nation’s emergence, the resurgence of Rasho and the 3 pt magic Kapono may just add.
I ask you, how hard was it for Andrew Shue to ‘act’ when all eyes were on Heather L? Seriously, this guy couldn’t act his way out of my grade 9 drama class and he enjoyed years of success. Our only real Shue is Bad Joey, who will hopefully cede way to good Joey this year (17:1 in Vegas). Bosh is Locklear and forces your eyes to him which leaves our supporting cast to zing the ball around until we find open shots. Is our cast really coming back ‘down to earth’ from this? Did Anthony Parker and Garbo just have a lucky season after years of success overseas? Is Kapono going to stop being able to hit wide open shots after 3 years of 47% shooting from long range? Is Nani going to get better or worse?
Hawks and Bobcats to Beat out Raptors for Playoff Spot
Really? Once I saw how bad we were I was Interested to see who would be taking our spot in the playoffs. And now I demand that If Hollinger is going to outsource his predictions to India then at least he should have to review them. Maybe I can start a company that reviews outsourced stuff, we’ll call it “Common Sense Buddy”. CSB.
Ranting and Rambling:
I shouldn’t spend an entire post trashing someone else. The guy is out on a limb. But I couldn’t help it. Washington 13th, Raptors 9th it’s just plain wrong. On hustle alone Atlanta will lose 5 games that they would win with Raptors like hustle. And that’s the point. I know this because I’m a basketball fan and I watch games. Maybe Atlanta’s rookies will propel them to the next level but we’ve been saying that for years. The reality is the Raptors went into last year WAY under rated and it looks like it’s happening again. Luckily for us, I think that’s the way they like it.
Random Research Note: I had my Virtual Assistant in India check out the shows that Marcia Cross (red headed bitch from Melrose place, more recently from Desperate Housewives) has appeared / starred in over the years! Somebody get this girl on their show, her BOE is through the ROOF (clearly her BOE is up there).
Shows: Cheers, Who’s the Boss, Murder She Wrote, Knots Landing, Melrose Place, Seinfeld, Spin City, Ally McBeal, CSI, Desperate Housewives. How’s that for a BOE!
Bottom Line: The only way we win less than 40 games is major injuries to multiple guys (or Bosh for 20+ games). The most likely way we'll win 48 games is coming up soon, and the drea like scenario of 55 games I'll save for December.